THE United Nations (UN) has officially declared the onset of El Niño, marking its return after a seven-year hiatus.
According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), there is a 90% probability of El Niño continuing throughout the second half of 2023, with expectations of at least a moderate strength.
In May, a WMO report projected a 98% likelihood that at least one of the next five years will be the warmest on record, surpassing the previous record set in 2016 during an exceptionally strong El Niño.
The report also highlighted a 66% probability that the annual average global temperature between 2023 and 2027 will temporarily exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one year.
El Niño is a climate pattern with warming ocean surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific.
It leads to temperature records, extreme heat, increased rainfall in some areas, and severe droughts in others.
El Niño can fuel Pacific hurricanes and affect Atlantic Basin hurricane formation.
The UN’s declaration of El Niño onset emphasizes the urgent need for global preparations to limit the adverse effects on health, ecosystems, and economies.
Governments are urged to heed early warnings and take proactive measures to protect lives and livelihoods.
The WMO will continue to closely monitor the evolution of El Niño and provide updated outlooks in the coming months as needed.
